Almost Midseason Review/Outlook

By: Jeremy | December 29th, 2008

As we head into the final two weeks of the first half of the season, with no game until January 10th against Inter, I think now is a good time to look at where we are and what the future holds for the team.

The game against Reggina just before the break showed us that despite recent strong performances, we still need to be concerned about safety more then anything. As tempting as it may be to think otherwise, results like that show we simply are not ready to take that next step to solid mid table with a sniff at a UEFA Cup spot. Despite Allegris assertion that he was happy with a tie, when you score an early goal in the opening seconds at home, only to be equalized after a pk on a questionable call in the second half which resulted in us playing with ten men for the rest of the game, you have to be frustrated. This is the type of game where you get an opening goal at home, then shut down a weak opposition, and take the three ugly points. If the return match means anything, I am sure Reggina will use the home field to their advantage much better then we did.

Instead of sitting on 23 points with the likes of Roma and Palermo, we are stuck on 21 points with matches remaining in the first half against Inter on the road and Udinese at home. Inter will be a loss and Udinese has been so up and down that we might be able to steal a point. After the first five games, if anyone would have said we would finish the first half with 21 points, I would be very happy. Lets look at how we got where we are and who is responsible.

President Cellino

As last season ended we were coming in on a positive note after making a miraculous effort to survive for yet another season in Serie A. After a miserable start and multiple coaches, including the yo yo act of Giampaolo, Ballardini stablized the managers spot, Foggia showed why he can be a force in midifeld, future Inter star Acquafresca showed why he was going to be a great player, and Marco Storari played the kind of goalkeeping that should have earned him a spot in Euro 2008 for Italy. Cagliari had so much potential for 2008-09.

So what does Cellino do? He lets Ballardini go with little fanfare and brings in Allegri. He also lets Foggia go when he could have purchased him for 3-4 million, makes a deal with Inter to sell our half of Acquafresca in exchange for another season on loan in Sardinia while we watch his development, and allows Storari to leave to be a backup in Fiorentina and replaces him with young Serie B star Marchetti. Most importantly be brings in no one else(Lazzari does not count) to solidify the teams other weaknesses.

The Ballardini move was risky. Stabilizing the managerial post in Cagliari has to be a priority, but now that the team and Allegri have found some form, this move seems acceptable. However, the newness of the entire team probably had something to do with losses in the first five games. You cannot allow this to happen in such a tough league, especially when you are pegged by many before the season to be relegated. Cellino did not learn his lesson after last year, but it looks like we are in good shape to survive as we have had some remarkable results and have been once of Serie A’s better teams since week six.

Letting Storari go was a mystery. If he could only sign as a backup for Fiorentina, how much could he have cost to keep. Another risky move that seems to have paid off as Marchetti has been brilliant and will only improve with time. Lets hope we can keep the big clubs away from him.

Selling our half of Acquafresca was smart. We were never going to own him fully and getting another year from him, if even a year while he is still improving and not yet a star, does wonders for the club. Supposedly it brought us some money that I guess Cellino used on a downpayment on some luxury boxes rather then players. Acquafresca is a big reason we are where we are now and hopefully we dont give him back in the transfer window in January, but he will never show his full talent playing for us.

What makes Cellinos grade average is the Foggia move. He is young, plays midfield, an area which we are weak, and his price tag was less then we got for our half of Acquafresca. We could have had him and after his play in Lazio this year, Cellinos decision to pass on him looks even dumber. Its rare as a small club when you can fully own a young up and coming player for so little. If its all about money, we could have sold him for a profit later and his play would have us even higher then we are now. While Cellino lucked into moves with the manager and the goalie, and did well to get Acquafresca for another year, the Foggia move is what keeps us a relegation struggler. After losing the first five games of the season with these new players, Cellino deserves some of the blame although it could have been much much worse with the risks he took in the offseason.

Grade: C

Manager Allegri

When you come in to replace a guy who solidified the managers spot, lead the team to safety, and you have no Serie A managerial experience, you are almost doomed to fail. When you lose your first five games under Cellinos watch, its a wonder you still have a job. Whether Cellino realized he couldnt make a drastic change after allowing Ballardini to walk, or his ties to Cagliari as a player, he is still here and has done quite well to turn things around after such a dreadful start.

For whatever reason, despite answering to a crazy man, Allegri has remained calm and has quietly won some games that have moved Cagliari up the standings. The players like him and want to play for him. The fans like him because of his ties to the team, he has weathered all the negativity that came with taking the position, has turned things around quickly, saving his job, and helping fans forget the past, which after last years brilliant finish was not easy to do. If he can keep the team in good spirits for the inevitable bad streaks that are likely to come and keep us in Serie A until the renovations at Sant Elia are done, he could be the manager to lead us for some time. Dont bet on it though as Cellino is just too unpredictable.

Grade: B

Goalie

Marchetti was in a similar situation is Allegri coming in to this year. They are basically the same guy only he is the goalie and not the manager. He is young, has no Serie A experience, did well in lower levels to get attiention, replaced someone who played a huge role in last years surivival, was brought in with little fanfare, and left fans wondering why the previous guy did not return.

As with Allegri, he has performed about as well as you can and has shown he will be coveted by the big clubs in the next couple of years. He has brought enthusiasm and leadership with his youth and has made me a fan. While I still wanted to keep Storari, this guy has been great. He has to manage a weak defense, has weathered the storm of five initial losses without killing his confidence, and has some great performances in close games. While he has made some blunders, as any young goalie will do, he has played a big part in our current position.

Simply put, the first half MVP.

Grade: A

Defenders

This is our weak spot and must be improved not only if we are going to survive but also if we are going to expect to move up in the standings. The long Serie A season will cause these players to hit a wall and without improvement, Marchetti might not be able to hide the obvious weaknesses.

Canini has been injured and we need to get him back to full health as he has only played 4 games so far this year. When healthy, he should be a solid mainstay in the back for us. Lopez has had a good year and has been Marchettis biggest help with his back line heading, but as we saw in the opening game, he is clutzy, old, and despite being Cagliaris longest standing player, the Uruguayan needs to look at a return to South America after this year if he wants to keep playing.

Mattheu was brought in from Independiente to give some more youth and promise to the defense, but he is still adjusting to Serie A and has been inconsistent. We just need to see more of him before we can decide if he is a keeper but the early scouting reports make this guy an iffy acquisition at best.

The other defenders we have simply are not long term Serie A players. While they can show flashes of solid play, this area needs some strength added and with a young goalkeeper, if not improved in January, it will be our downfall in the short and long term. Lets hope Cellino sees this and makes one or two defenders a priority.

Grade: D

Midfield

This area has vastly improved but is still haunted by the failure to purchase Foggia. My favorite Cagliari player, Biondini, is typical of what is a hard working, but not quite talented enough bunch, when it comes to Serie A effectiveness. Here is a guy with minimal talent, who works his ass off, runs all over the place, and while this is important, if the other players are not star quality, he will find himself not all that much of use. At some point he will have to be replaced unless we can acquire a superstar type midfielder ie Foggia or even better.

Conti is a solid midfielder whose leadership is huge to this team. Hes actually picked up his play this year and has scored a little more then normal. He is a fan favorite and we keep him.

Cossu has also improved. He provides a great link to the attack and has really proven to be a valuable commodity. Another player I would keep.

Fini, Parola, and Lazzari have been ok, but this last midfield spot really should be Foggias. If we had him, then the move of Jeda to the attack, which was needed, could have been absorbed much better and we would likely be 5-7 points better as a team, a huge amount in Serie A. We need to look to the transfer window to fill this spot, but if Cellino wouldnt buy Foggia, any player he brings in now will likely be cheaper and no better then what we have. Until that happens, this bunch could go either way although these players are some of the fan favorites. I still would like to see Matri given some time in midfield until the replacement can be found.

Grade C+

Attack

For a team that has a hard time scoring goals and did not add anyone in the offseason, they have been surprisingly good. Getting Acquafresca back was huge, and he is the teams leading Serie A scorer with 6, but his youth leads to inconsistent performance. It is clear that he will be a star in the future as he changes games with finishes that few players can make. I kind of liken him to Pippo Inzaghi in many ways with the flair of Kaka that will soon develop. We wont see that much of it here, but Inter will enjoy him for years to come.

The big move has been taking Jeda from midfield to attack. At some point someone got sick of watching Matri and Larrivey stink it up and their presence on the bench drops the attacks grade significantly, but atleast they are on the bench. While it created a hole in midfield, bringing him up to pair with Acquafresca was the best move for the team and it has shown with some timely goals and unexpected wins resulted.

If we could keep Acquafresca and Jeda for the long term, I would say spend our limited resources in defense and midfield, but with Acquafresca gone no later then this summer, and young Ragatzu not quite ready, we need to be on the look out for a striker. If we ignore this area and bring back Larrivey next year or allow Matri a regular upfront role, relegation dodging will not continue much longer. For now a solid strike partnership is in play, but with no depth and the future staring at us, we cannot ignore this part of the team.

Grade: B-

Outlook

Considering the start of the year and the offseason changes, we have to be happy where we are as the goal is still survivial. With an expected loss to Inter and maybe a draw at best at home to Udinese, to finish the first half, we will likely see a six point or so cushion from the relegation zone. Not a huge cushion, but one we must be happy with. With Chievo in free fall, we must find two other teams to drop. Lecce is falling fast but the other contenders still have the strength to put in nice runs to earn safety so they cannot be assumed to be relegated.

Who will we get and lose in January? Despite the rumors, I dont think we lose Acquafresca in January. Inter sees him as their future, but with Suazo on loan to be called back over Acquafresca and Adriano still around, I dont see Inter giving us anything which would likely be required for Inter to bring him back early as we bargained for a whole year. Its still no guarantee he gets regular football with them next year so I wouldnt rule us out getting him for another year if we can make a run this year but that might be a pipe dream.

With a cushion to safety in place but a higher then 10th place finish not realistic, does Cellino save his money for the summer or make improvements now? At some point we want to improve to UEFA Cup contender, but our resources will likely be limited until the stadium investment creates profits, so we are probably in our best possible position, which is just outside the relegation zone. However, I will take a wait and see approach as I scoffed at last years midseason acquisitions(Jeda and Storari) and they basically saved us so lets see what Cellino does this winter. Hopefully he does something as we have too many holes to consider us safe, despite our good play off late.

Overall, things are good here for now, but dont expect a second half like last year. We must take our early schedule and get some wins ie Lecce and Torino as we cannot expect wins against Fiorentina and Palermo like we managed in the first half. We still need 39-40 points to surivive and it is not guaranteed although we are much closer and dont need a miracle like last year. That is why games like Reggina are so frustrating. Those two missing points could be huge. But all and all, with a new manager, new goalie, no Foggia, and losing the first five games, a disaster has been averted and with the right moves and some luck, we can eliminate the relegation worry much earlier then expected.

At some point the fans need to expect more so Cellino and Tiscali, if they are going to spend mega millions on stadium improvements, must also put a few million into some players or we will have the best stadium in Serie B.

Enjoy the break everyone.