Amazing…are we safe yet?

By: Jeremy | May 4th, 2008

If even the most optimistic Cagliari fan at any point in this season thought we would be asking that question with two weeks left in the season, they likely would have been asking it tongue and cheek as safety has never really seemed a believable option until this weekend when we defeated Fiorentina 2-1 in the Stadio Sant Elia. Let me repeat in case you dont believe it…we defeated Fiorentina 2-1.

If you didnt get to see the game, all I can say is what a great match from a Cagliari fans perspective. Cagliari instead of playing the ten men behind the ball scheme I thought they would, came out attacking and dominated the first half. It seemed like Fiorentina was the relegation struggler and that Cagliari was the team pushing for the Champions League. I can honestly say Fiorentina looked tired and still a bit frustrated from what happened against Rangers, and to have a normally conservative Cagliari come out pushing the pace set Fiorentina on their heels. Their flow and finishing just wasnt there. The passes werent crisp and they were a step slow or just not getting to the ball. Cagliari made them pay with Jedas awesome header in the 20th minute giving Cagliari a 1-0 halfime lead.

The second half Cagliari played the same and pushed the action again. However, Fiorentina woke up and began to show why they were a top team in Serie A. They had multiple chances and really against the run of play, Cagliari got a second goal on a nice Matri pass to Conti who calmly finished giving Cagliari a 2-0 lead in the 50th minute. As Cagliari tends to do, while celebrating and posing, they let the other team get one back as Fiorentina not less then a minute later caught the Cagliari backline flatfooted and a nice through ball that just barely was not offside allowed for an easy finish to make it 2-1. Game on. I think Fiorentina thought that they would come back and win the game after that yet they could not keep up with Cagliaris pace. Ballardinis brilliant tactics to make Fiorentina run all over the place paid off. After the Fiorentina goal, it was essentially a counter attacking game of keep away for forty minutes and the frustration Cagliari caused Fiorentina finally caused Mutu to snap forcing a needless red card just before the game ended. Both teams had some chances during this time, but other then a last minute bicycle kick from a cross which barely missed the Cagliari net and if successful would have been goal of the year in Serie A, there was really no threat from Fiorentina. Mutu missed what should have been a simple finish earlier by chipping the ball over the net when alone on goal and it was clear it was not his teams day. Fiorentina being tired, Cagliari pushing the pace, and the added advantage that comes with a home match in Sardinia, led to this result.

Some other thoughts from this game that need to be mentioned involve the stellar play of Cagliari midfielder Davide Biondini. I have always liked this guy for his work rate. He was all over the place today and almost scored. A team cannot discount the value of a midfield player who runs constantly, never gives up, and makes good decisions with passing and clearing. Biondini does a great job with minimal skill. Matri also seemed lively today. He still cant finish worth a damn, but seemed to be all over the field. I think he should be slotted in an attacking midfielder spot instead of striker. He would have reduced pressure on him and would likely be a great assist man, especially if Acquafresca continues to develop. I dont like him as a striker, but I think he has enough pace to play in midfield. It was good to see Foggia get in the game, but why he is not in from the beginning bothers me. He should be in shape enough to play ninety minutes, especially if the thinks he is good enough for the Azzuri, which he is in my opinion. He creates a lot out there on the field. You can also see the confidence and unity the team has with Storari in the net. He is like a rock of confidence and the team is so much better with him. Again the MVP of Serie A this year in only half a season and our number one priority this offseason is to somehow keep him. Lastly, if you are a Fiorentina fan, you are no doubt frustrated. You are in fourth place with three games left against relegation strugglers. These are games you need to win, but facing an in form motivated Cagliari team on the road after a tough Rangers match was asking a lot. However, Champions League quality teams find a way to win these matches.

Now for the big question, are we actually safe from relegation with this huge win? I thought 38 points would be enough for safety and while we mathmatically are not safe yet, we are very close. Lets look at the other relegation strugglers and see if we can find three that will finish below us.

Cagliari
38 points
remaining games Udinese(a) and Reggina
odds of relegation: can you believe it, minimal.
Even if we lose the next two weeks, I think it will be hard for the other results to go in a way that does not leave three other teams with 37 points or less. I have a hunch that after next week we will be celebrating. Who would have thought that.

Torino
37 points
remaining games: Livorno(a) Fiorentina
odds of relegation:slim after today
Talk about a huge win, beating Napoli today puts them in good shape. I still dont like them and think they got a lot of lucky points early in the season, but even on 37 points, they might end up safe. They need a point next week in Livorno as they wont get any against Fiorentina just to be sure.

Reggina
36 points
remaining games: Empoli, Cagliari(A)
odds of relegation: less then 50%
Gotta love this team. Beating Catnia on the road today and facing two teams that arent great the next two weeks has to make them think they can survive. I think they eek out two draws or a win and end up safe.

Catania
35 points
Remaining games: Juventus(A) Roma
odds of relegation: likely
This team is screwed. They needed to beat Reggina today at home to guarantee safety and they didnt do it. Who thinks they will get three points over the next two weeks? Not me. This is one team that will finish below Cagliari. Whether they are relegated isnt certain, but they have to realize how much trouble they are in.

Parma
34 points
remaining games: Fiorentina(a) Inter
odds of relegation: the same as Catania if not worse.
Huge win today over Genoa which was a must win if there ever was one in Serie A this year. Unfortunately you get an angry Fiorentina next week and even if Inter has clinched the league and plays a weak lineup, this team has no chance of finishing with more then 37 points. Team two that will finish below Cagliari. As for relegation, I guess Id rather be Catania because of the extra point, but one of these teams will get a win where it is least expected and might survive the drop. Parma is in huge trouble no matter what.

Empoli
33 points
remaining games: Reggina(a) and Livorno
odds of relegation: might be the survivor that you least expect.
They really needed a point today at home against Udinese but could not come through. Thus their situation. They have two very winnable games left and could end up on 39 points so Cagliari was happy that Udinese beat them today. There is no room for error and will need two wins for safety. I think this could happen.

Livorno
30 points
remaining games: Torino and Empoli(A)
They will finish below Cagliari so I want them to win their last two games. If they dont, Cagliari might have to sweat a bit, but even if they do and finish on 36 points, it will be near impossible to survive and would only happen if they beat Empoli and Reggina on goal difference and Parma and Catania lose out and finish on max 35 points. 36 points and safe? Still slightly possible, but the odds are less then even what Cagliaris odds were to survive when the second half of the season started. See you in Serie B Livorno.

Right now Livorno and Parma will finish below Cagliari for sure. The third team is likely Catania, but Empoli probably will too. Even if Cagliari loses out, they may still finish 15th, but no worse then 17th. We cant celebrate yet because the big clubs are often vulnerable to a relegation struggler especially when they have already locked in their final place and have nothing to play for.

To think we could possibly talk survival this early is a testament to the awesome play of the team in the second half and hats off to them for winning today. I feel like we will have Serie A football in Sardinia next year and it could be the year we see Acquafresca turn into a top three striker in Serie A while playing for us. The rest of the league should give us our props for what we have done when before they saw us as the laughing stock of Serie A.

How do you like them apples Cagliari fans?