Atalanta-Cagliari

By: Jeremy | September 23rd, 2008

After a tough loss to Juve where we played well, but still ended up losing, we now head to Bergamo to face Atalanta in a midweek match up where points are a must.

On the surface this looks like a mismatch as Atalanta has six points and sits near the top of the standings while Cagliari is at the bottom with no points. Combine this with Atalanta having the best defense in the league having only allowed one goal in three games while Cagliari plays an Ole defense with 7 let in the first three games.

If you look at this game more closely, it is clear Atalanta is not better then Cagliari and if Cagliari is going to get back into Serie A, they need points and should get them. Atalanta has played three 1-0 games with wins at home against Siena and on the road to Bologna, two relegation candidates. Their loss was also 1-0 on the road to Catania, a team who is also a bottom dweller even if Zenga may be working some magic. Atalantas position is therefore inflated and they are boring and have no creativity so we should get a result.

Cagliari on the other hand has lost three games and you cant make too many excuses, but is it really that bad when you look at it closely. The Juve loss over the weekend was expected, the loss to Lazio and the goals that came with it, all took place after Lopez was ejected for a clumsy handball. The Siena loss was a home opener for them where we had a goal disallowed, again another game that was close. That being said, close does not count in Serie A and we are now at the bottom with a lot of work to do. However, it is important to look at the big picture when trying to believe that points can be had in this match.

Atalanta will be without Vieri, Cerci, and Bellini while Cagliari should have Conti back in the lineup and Canini is not hurt that bad and should even be on the bench for a possible substitution appearance in this game. The key will be whether Allegri wants to put some offense on the field or play a boring game hoping for a 0-0 draw. I am by no means a coach, but I dont understand the stupidity of not having a healthy Jeda and Acquafresca in the lineup from the start and having them play a full 90. Lets hope Allegri does this, but we could very well see a Matri/Larrivey strike force with the typical second half subs. With only one goal in three games, some changes need to be made offensively. As I mentioned in my last post, we need an offensive minded team out there to include Acquafresca and Larrivey up front, and Matri and Jeda in the midfield. With Biondinis improved play and a healthy Canini and Conti complementing them, there would be some real offensive potential. The defense needs work, but I think if we can score some goals, they will relax and we will see improved play from them and Marchetti. With no goals being scored, the defense feels too much pressure and the talent is not there to handle it so the offense must take on some responsibility.

How this game flows depends on the lineup. Atalanta wont have any surprises and want that 1-0 home win over a bottom dweller so they can reach their goal of finishing 10th in the standings. While it may seem like I am insulting them, you have to give them props for winning games like this and not givign away points and that is what keeps them safe while we struggle. Cagliari needs points on the road against an overrated team who is off to a good start. If you cant get points here, where will you get them? Home wins against Siena, Lecce, Chievo et al dont get enough points to survive, so points in this game are a must.

I think Cagliari will surprise in this game and try to show the fans that they are going to be competitive. With an early goal, they will build on it because Atalanta is not an offensive threat. This could be the game that gets us rolling because a loss probably gets Allegri the ax so something has to give. Allegri is not ready to pack it in yet.

Prediction

Atalanta 1-2 Cagliari