Cagliari-Lecce

By: Jeremy | February 13th, 2009

After last weeks loss at home to Atalanta, memories of the win against Juve seemed as distant as week five when Cagliari lost its fifth straight game to start the season to this weeks foe, Lecce. Now we are back for the rematch and the clubs fortunes have reversed a bit.

Cagliari who after that loss looked like certain relegation fodder and Lecce seemed to be better then expected, even though most any pundit had them relegated before the season started. Now Cagliaris reversal has put them on the fringe of European qualification while Lecce has settled into its relegation fighting position and lurks just three points from relegation, a position even their fans cant be too unhappy with considering their newly promoted status and overall lack of Serie A talent. They have a real shot at surivival this year however and while I know very few of their players, they are a competitive bunch who Cagliari cannot ignore this weekend.

Fans of Cagliari are accustomed to streaks, most of them bad, and when a bad result happens, especially after a great run, the thought that if the next game brings the same result, combined with a follow up game with a big team, we can easily get back on a bad losing skid. So is Lecce our pivotal game of the season? Not really and its no more important then last weeks game. Yes a loss will send us to Milan next week with a likely 3 game losing streak hitting us, but with games against the likes of Chievo, Torino, and Bologna soon to follow, this portion of the schedule is not the time we would expect to go on a bad run and now is not the time to evaluate what we will be playing for the last 8-10 weeks of the season when the meat of the schedule hits us. A loss against Lecce, while devasting, will not necessarily end our bid for Europe, especially if Serie A gets a 7th place UEFA Spot.

That being said, whenever you have the aspirations Cagliari seems and so badly wants to have, and justifiably so considering recent performance, you cant lose a game at home to Lecce. They are not as good as Atalanta, and while we should not have put ourselves in the position we did last week to lose that game the way we did, if we had lost to Juve and beat Atalanta, we would have the same number of points we do now and fans would be a lot happier and less worried about potential bad streaks. Its not time to worry yet and what you worry about at this point in the season, with 34 points, is not a bad place to be as we are not used to worrying about how we will get a european space. The relegation zone is all but gone from our minds but we are still not totally safe and that cannot be ignored.

Because of recent history, the goal should always be to first secure safety and Allegri no doubt sees this weekends game as a game to get 3 of the 6 points still needed which likely secures safety. Getting these 3 points, and then getting to face a Milan team who always plays to the level of its opponents, we could be back in European mindset real quick as points at the San Siro would not be a huge shock.

The bottom line is that we just need to play in that our fortunes can really go either way at this point. Things will fall into place quickly enough, but these next few weeks will tell us if we will play the string out on the season and finish from 12th to 17th or if we will continue to play meaningful games against good teams who also want to slide into Europe. Whether its Lecce this week or Torino or Chievo, if you want to be in Europe, every game is a must win game, especially against bottom level teams.

So what do I know about Lecce? Very little. My daughter Alessandra likes their uniforms. They lost last week at home against Inter after winning in Siena while down a man. The team has fight, but it has inconsistent results and seems to play for a draw whenever they can. Being on the road does not help their cause this week either. I cant say that any of their players stand out and it seems like they get surprise play from a different guy every week. Simply put, if your team lacks talent, and has no real playmaker, not much is expected and their surivival in Serie A would be a great result for the coach. They do have a couple of players out through injury and suspension so they will not travel to Sardinia with a full team. While spirits might be down after getting thumped by Inter, they know survival is based more on results against bottom half of the table teams so they will be ready to go and see us as no better then Siena and thinking we arent as good as our position in the standings.

Speaking of not having a full squad, we will be without Biondini, a key player, and Lopez, who is out because of last weeks red card. We might see the new Bellorussian kid play a few minutes although Lazzari should slide in and replace Biondini. If Parola replaces Lopez, it wont be that big of a drop off. The result in this game will depend out how active Jeda and Acquafresca are upfront and how well Cossu does at getting them the ball. Assuming we dont get any early red cards and can play this game with equal amounts of players, we should win the game. A win keeps us where we are and still in the European mindset, while a loss leaves us scratching our heads. The result will not mean anything good or bad over what a normal win or loss does for a mid table team so dont think this is the make or break game for the year.

We do know one thing is that Larrivey wont be seeing the field for Cagliari in this game or likely ever again as he was loaned back to Argentina to get him some playing time. Even if he scores like he did before he got to Europe, we likely sell him and cut our losses. He is not a Serie A level player and we expected more from him when he came on board last year.

If you are feeling a little iffy about Cagliari after last weeks lost, look at the big picture. The game was not determined on talent, but on being a man down. Dont forget the Juve win, and remember the game with Milan in the first half turned the season around, and this is a great time to get Lecce on our home field. I expect fortunes to turn around real quick and we get to look at the standings for another week wondering if Europe is realistic. For now, it very much is and this kind of relaxed mindset from the players might lead to an entertaining game and what will hopefully be a win.

Prediction

Cagliari 3-1 Lecce