Dont Fret; Are the European Places Already Set?

By: Jeremy | February 9th, 2009

Just as soon as we get a little cocky, we fall back to earth real quick with Sundays 1-0 loss to Atalanta. Its hard to analyze a game when the result occurred because the team played down a man for 50 minutes. Again it was Lopez who caught a second yellow and ended up putting the team in a bad position just before the end of the first half. While 10 man Juventus came out with three points against Catania after a lucky goal in the last minutes, we were in a bad spot to create momentum to allow us to get a goal or two to save this game. All and all, this was probably the right result once we lost a guy. Its hard to generate too much offensively with one less guy, even against road wary Atalanta. These losses really get me upset. Winnable home games are given away and it hurts even more when you take yourself down a man forcing a flow that does not give any idea how the game would have turned out if both sides have 11 guys. For all that was acheived against Juve, so much is given back in games like this.

If nothing else, we are reminded again that Serie A for most teams is a very up and down year of play. Unless you are at the top winning almost every week or at the bottom where a couple of wins in a row is a major achievement, all the other clubs that see mid table type positions can really end up almost anywhere in the middle area of the standings.

No matter what your justification for losing a game, you still want to finish as high as possible in the standings. While ultimately it does not matter if you finish 8th or 17th, an 8th place finish instills a level of confidence that is not there when you are barely surviving relegation. A winning mindset must be created so you can look forward each year with higher expectations that you are going to compete for Europe. This is the mentallity we are ultimiately working on this year and thinking in these terms makes games like this weekend a little easier to swallow from a fans perspective.

With the recent run of games that have moved us up the standings, one loss should not suddenly change the mindset that we can make Europe, but it is a stark reminder that the teams for Europe are all but set in my opinion. Looking at the top six, it is clear that Inter, Juve, Milan, Fiorentina and Roma are going to qualify for Europe. The current 6th team Genoa, is the likely club to drop and we are only 6 points back of them. They are going to struggle to qualify for Europe despite their solid position in the standings and there are clubs, including Cagliari, that are going to want to put the pressure on them to take that sixth spot.

If not Genoa, then why not us? If I understand things correctly, we may also get a 7th place spot into the UEFA Cup if the two finalists in the Coppa qualify for the Champions League. With Juve and Inter on a collision course to the finals, this is a real possibility. Lazio and Sampdoria, if they can pull an upset in the semis, would eliminate that extra slot that we are hoping for as they would get it for being finalists in the Coppa. If there is a 7th slot, we are definitely in the mix, but if it is just sixth place who secures the last spot, then our work will be cut out for us.

Even if Genoa drops back, Palermo is looking really good. Mafia and pink jokes aside, this is a really enjoyable club to watch and with their win over Napoli, they now sit in 7th, one point ahead of us and looking to move up. When we lose to Atalanta while they manage to take care of Napoli, it really hurts because its these mid table games where wins mean the most because they are obtainable on a regular basis. If not Palermo, we still have Napoli, Lazio, Atalanta etc just behind us looking to move up.

Cagliari is really at a crossroads for the year and most midtable teams feel the same way. Momentum is everything and we must be careful not to lose ours. A loss like this one really takes the wind out of the sales, yet with a very winnable game against Lecce coming up this weekend, we can get back on track quickly. For the fans out there, it is simply going to be an up and down rest of the year.

While Allegri intelligently stresses gaining the points needed for survival, we fans are now wanting more. He is smart in that he sees that good fortunes change to bad really quickly for teams like Cagliari and one letdown against Atalanta can lead to another one and the next thing you know you go from Europe mode to surivival mode. We must watch this closely and that makes next weekends game so vital. We cant lose two winnable games at home or things will spiral downward quickly. While I think we have built the cushion to survive, after a win against Juve, expectations jumped with two winnable games to follow, but now the team must try to regain its focus because of this loss even if it is just one game.

Forget this game and look forward to next week while keeping the big picture in place. Europe is still possibe, but because of the talent in Serie A it will take some work to get there. Even if we dont, barring a massive collapse, the end result will likely be pleasing and can be a real foundation for next year where it will be more about just surviving. That in itself will be an achievement so lets stay positive.