Horrible Loss-Relegation Analysis

By: Jeremy | March 10th, 2008

As much as I was upset at the loss to Siena, Sundays loss to Catania was worse. For all that has gone wrong this year, Cagliari had another opportunity to make their fight for survival legitimate and again they failed. They took the lead and could have easily had more goals and pounded Catania into the ground, yet against the run of play they give up an equalizer and then suffer an own goal to go down 2-1 early in the second half. From then on, it was Storari who continued his stellar play or the scoreline would have been worse. While its hard to be frustrated when the offense has clearly improved and the games are no longer based on hoping for 0-0 draws or an occasional 1-0 victory, a loss is a loss. This is the second recent winnable game where the team not only failed to get points, but allowed fellow relegation strugglers to pick up three points.

We are now at the point where we have to look at relegation and see where we are realistically each week when compared to three teams we have the best chance of passing in the standings. Until the relegation battle is officially decided, I am going to pick the four strongest relegation candidates as they sit that week and see which team is looking like the one of the four who will survive. This can change each week obviously as teams performances improve or decline. Maybe by some miracle we can will the Rossoblu to survive. So lets begin.

Cagliari, 18 points
next three opponents: Torino, Atalanta, Sampdoria
odds of relegation: almost certain

Cagliari is simply trying to overcome a bad first half of the season and despite some decent play in the second half, this is going to be very tough. While their next three games are not easy but with two of them at home they are winnable. However, they still have to play both Milans, Roma, Fiorentina, and Udinese in the last 11 weeks. Needless to say the next three weeks are pretty important. However, when you cant beat Siena and a slumping Catania and are also docked three points, even the biggest supporter cant expect this team to finish anywhere other then the bottom three. To put a positive spin on it, if they can get the docked three points back, they would only be 5 points from safety. The other teams I will discuss this week are playing like crap right now so a couple of wins can put you back in it. The problem is I have been saying this for too long and we are running out of games.

Reggina, 22 points
next three opponents: Siena, Livorno, Napoli
odds of relegation: slightly better then Cagliari

Reggina is another team that is likely to go down. They have not been good at all, but have shown some fighting spirit as evidenced by their win over Juventus. They are now going to play a part of their schedule that if they can win a couple of these games against teams that really arent that much better then they are, they can sneak out of the bottom three. Siena and Livorno are beatable and you never know which Napoli will show up. Where Cagliari failed to move up in the standings by losing games like these they needed to win, Reggina now has their shot over the next three weeks. I am not a big fan of this team and its chances, but its survival cannot be ruled out yet. After getting beat up by some of Serie A’s best recently, they now get to see some teams that are more on their level so lets see what happens.

Parma, 25 points
next three opponents: Livorno, Palermo, Siena
odds of survival: even money

Parma to me is a strange team. They seem to put together some decent streaks of games, yet when you look up, they are in a relegation fight. This year in Serie A is tough as pretty much every team in the bottom half of the table has to look at relegation as a real threat, so their up and down play puts them in the mix. Parma just seems to be that team that is always a point or two short of being comfortable, relatively speaking. They get to play Livorno and Siena over the next three weeks in between a match against a Palermo team that I really like. Amauri is just a stud. Points are there to be had, but their recent form suggests that they could play like Cagliari has in games they have to win to realistically survive and end up in a position they cannot overcome. Knowing this, they just fired Coach Di Carlo hoping someone can be brought in to energize the side to wins over a couple of winnable opponents. They are like Cagliari. The lack enough talent and masking it with a coaching switch isnt the way to go.

Empoli, 25 points
next three games: Atalanta, Juventus, Roma
odds of surivival: better then the other three teams listed

Empoli is the team out of these four and is likely to survive. They are better then the other teams, but none of their next three games are winnable in my opinion. Atalanta on the road wont be easy, but when you face Milan(loss), Juventus, and Roma around that road game, a losing streak is inevitable and they will likely be in the relegation zone three weeks from now. However, they are going to see an easier schedule toward the end of the year and that may help them barely survive in what has been a disappointing year.

Each week until the end of the season, I will look at the four teams that are in the best position to be relegated. This can change as there are 6-7 teams that can slip into the final four relegation battle. A team like Livorno and even Catania could fall back into this list. I still think Siena is the worst team in Serie A yet they are doing what they need to do and likely wont see this list.

From Cagliaris perspective, assuming they get the three docked points back, 11 weeks is too early to pack it in and just say they will automatically be relegated. While passing Reggina and maybe even Parma could be possible this year, I cant see them getting past that third team, especially after a loss to Catania. However, when you have put yourself in this position, you are going to have to somehow beat a Roma or a Milan which just is not realistic, especially when those teams are fighting for Champions League positions and the Scudetto. They beat Roma at home last year in a must win game, so it cant be ruled out, but you cannot put yourself in that kind of position.

I was really stoked going in to that Catania game and losing just compounds a problem that began with the Siena loss. When climbing a mountain, you can only get knocked down so many times before you realize that climbing that mountain just is not possible and Cagliari is trying to climb the equivalent of Mt. Everest. You hope the players never feel that way as there is simply too much time left, but as fans and pundits we can feel this way because we arent putting on the kit and trying to show a coach we can play and will do so to the end, even if it is to impress another club.