Napoli-Cagliari

By: Jeremy | November 21st, 2008

After beating Fiorentina in typical Cagliari style, we head to Naples this weekend to face our whipping boys from last year. Yes, Napoli sits surprisingly in 4th place this year after a strong run of form while we are trying to solidify our position away from the relegation zone after starting the season so poorly. Without having to analyze things too much, with it being a home game for Napoli, it should be a win for them but considering the recent history, there might be more to it.

Lets see how we can argue that getting a win this weekend might not be so impossible.

This is the latest game for Cagliari where we are coming off a strong home performance with a chance to go on the road and steal some points against a non relegation but not dominant team. Confidence is high going in, but the results always just come up a little short. Whether its Genoa, Catania, and now Napoli, how can we change the result, especially since Napoli is arguably better then either Genoa or Catania, teams we lost to immediately coming off home wins? A pattern is clearly developing, but with the tough schedule coming up, we have to get points where we can as the home performance while strong, can seem a little shaky. This is basically Genoa and Catania preview redux.

If you remember last year in week one, newly promoted Napoli in front of their home fans where handed a 2-0 whipping by Cagliari. Welcome back to Serie A boys. Not a sign of things to come however as Napoli showed themselves to be UEFA Cup quality while Cagliari needed a miracle to survive. We still managed to beat them in Sardinia as well so we showed the game in Napoli wasnt a fluke no matter how bad we were overall. Do we have their number? Maybe, but as we try to move off the bottom while they are surprisingly near the top, they are clearly a better team and any argument otherwise is just me being a Sardinian homer.

We come off last weeks win against Fiorentina at home while their great run hit a road bump with a 3-1 loss on the road to Atalanta, a stale offensive team. One game does not mean much in overall performance, so these results are more about the home team then anything else. Such is Serie A. With the game being in Napoli this weekend, I think we are at a distinct disadvantage and trying to get a result will therefore be tough. Napoli wants to bounce back from last week but also has extra incentive to repay their fans for last years opening game debacle against us.

What makes things worse for Cagliari is that Acquafresca may not play. He limped off last weekend and didnt play in midweek for Italys U-21. He didnt train either and is likely to get some rest and hopefully will be ready for next week. That leaves it up to Jeda and Matri. Jeda spouted off to the media this week claiming we can beat anyone. That is true and it shows the confidence the team has, but for safety to be achieved, we have to do more then win home games and lose road games. For every road game we might win against Torino we probably lose two at home to teams like Juve or Inter. Its not a formula for overall success so this weekend we can just take the loss and assume we win next week at home. With the bad start, the current pace, while impressive on the surface, still leaves us in serious relegation trouble so we must undo this pattern. Is this the week? Lets hope so.

I dont think Napoli is going to finish fourth and are a very similar club to Palermo in my mind. Lots of talent, enjoyable to watch, a team you are very wary of playing, but not good enough to be more then a mid table team that might test qualification for the UEFA Cup. Therefore they can be beaten in Naples even if their home record is pretty much perfect this year. Cagliari can do it, but unless Matri plays and pops in a couple of goals, it will be tough.

For all the advantages that seem to be in Napolis favor, because of the improved backline of Cagliari lead by Marchetti, it could very easily be a 1-0 type game with either side capable of a fluke goal. With new arrival Mattheu stepping up, if we could just get Canini back, this area could be a strength for our team when it seemed like a weakness early on. Unless Napoli plays like Fiorentina did last weekend in Sardinia, it is going to be tough to play defensive, get a goal on the counter, and win 1-0. Unfortunately I think all the incentives, combined with the uncertainty of Acquafresca, plus the game being in Naples, means anything other then a Napoli victory would truly be a surprise.

Prediction

Napoli 3-1 Cagliari