Out of the Relegation Zone!!-Relegation Update.

By: Jeremy | April 13th, 2008

No this is not a misprint…Cagliari for the first time since week two is now out of the relegation zone and looking like they have a real shot to survive. I guess Ballardini either got my email or listened to someone who told him to make sure Acquafresca and Jeda played from the start and to play a more attacking style depite the jitters that may come with a game like the one today against Livorno. Jeda and Acquafresca started the game and were a part of almost every offensive threat. Foggia didnt manage to get in until minute 67, but atleast his horrible miss into an empty net didnt matter.

Storari was again brilliant and showed why a dominant keeper can keep teams up even when the rest of their talent is a little iffy at times. Acquafresca does what world class strikers do, they finish their chances. I not only want Cagliari to survive because I prefer Serie A football, but I want there to be no excuses if we lose him to Inter. If we go down, hes gone. If we stay up, surely we can get one more year out of him. Today he got a brace and showed why there is a huge difference between him and Matri even if they look somewhat similar running up and down the field. After going down 1-0 on the road, Cagliari came back to win. If this was any other team then Livorno, it would almost be shocking.

Marco over the Livorno blog did a fine job summing up todays match including some highlights so check him out and rather then attempt to repeat his fine work, it will bring me great joy to provide everyone with a relegation update with only 5 weeks to go.

There are seven candidates for relegation and lets look at each of them and where they stand:

Torino
34 points
Remaining Schedule: Inter(H), Roma(A), Napoli(H), Livorno(A), Fiorentina(H)

After playing bad most of the second half of the year, you thought they had sealed their safety with a great road win against Catania in week 31, but with losses to Empoli and Genoa the past two weeks, combined with teams like Cagliari and Reggina winning more then expected, they just cant seem to shake their relegation rivals. With five weeks left, they are just four points up on Reggina and Empoli and are in bigger relegation trouble then you think. With three of their games against Inter Roma and Fiorentina all likely losses, they must find a way to get points at home against Napoli and a week 37 road match against Livorno could have huge implications.

Odds of relegation: Despite currently being in 14th place with atleast two more points then their relegation rivals, this team will finish 17th or 18th. This will be even more evident after the next two weeks matches.

Catania
32 points
Remaining Schedule: Lazio(H), Udinese(A), Reggina(H), Juventus(A), Roma(H)

Catania seems to win games when you least expect it, but even after winning relegation games against the likes of Cagliari, they cant seem to move up the standings. They arent necessarily on bad form, but they have to step up if they are going to avoid relegation. They have some tough games left, but they get Juventus who likley has little to play for at this point as they will either finish third or fourth and probably will send a half ass lineup out there in week 37 and unless Roma has a chance at the Scudetto, they will do the same the last week of the season.

Odds of relegation: Either them or Torino likely going down.

Cagliari
32 points
Remaining Schedule: Empoli(H), Inter(A), Fiorentina(H), Udinese(A), Reggina(H)

Cagliari has done the impossible which in less then half a season has gone from certain relegation candidates to safety with a real shot at staying up. Outside of the Champions League teams, they have played better then anyone in Serie A over the past ten weeks. Despite such a huge turnaround, they came into todays game at Livorno knowing a loss likely puts them in relegation. To say todays win was huge is an understatement. You take three points from a relegation rival and then head home for a game against Empoli that is really another must win, but if a victory is achieved in that game, they will feel really good about their chances despite playing Inter, Fiorentina, and Udinese in three of the last four weeks of the year. They are still not safe by any means, but this team has to feel as good as it has all year. The last game against Reggina is going to mean something and it may be a tie sends them both to safety.

Odds of Relegation: Ask me after the Empoli match but I think they will be safe.

Parma
31 points
Remaining Schedule: Napoli(H), Reggina(A), Genoa(H), Fiorentina(A), Inter(H), Juventus(make up game)

Parma brought in Hector Cuper to save them from relegation yet they really have not had that spark or run of victories to make them a little safer. They seem to play defensively and look for a draw. Todays draw on the road against Empoli was big as it was a road game against a desperate team. They have an extra game to play when compared to everyone else and really the easiest schedule left outside of Reggina. Their toughest game against Inter may be meaningless to Inter. They can take points in any of their remaining games with the exception of maybe Fiorentina. Despite uninspiring performances this year, they will find the points to survive.

Odds of relegation: I think they will end up safe.

Reggina
30 Points
Remaining Schedule: Milan(A), Parma(H), Catania(A), Empoli(H), Cagliari(A)

Big ups to Reggina today for beating Sampdoria and keeping themselves in the fight for safety. Just when they seem like they will be relegated, they come with a huge win. As big as the Juventus win was, this one was bigger. It keeps them out of last and sets them up for a fine finish and safety. With the easiest schedule left, you cant assume they will be relegated. With the exception of Milan, I can see them getting points in all their other games. If they can beat Parma and Empoli at home, I think they will get the other points they need to survive. Dont overlook this team.

Odds of relegation: 50/50, but I think they stay up

Empoli
30 points
Remaining Schedule: Cagliari(A), Genoa(H), Udinese(H), Reggina(A), Livorno(H)

Its easy to say Empoli has been bad and is in 19th spot because of their inconsistent play, but they really arent any worse then any of the other relegation candidates. They earned a point today on the road against Parma which has to be a positive result, but with other relegation clubs earning wins, including a big road win by Cagliari, Empoli finds itself near the bottom of an ever tighening table. Their Waterloo next week is in Sardinia. If they can pull out a win today as Cagliari did against Livorno, they will actually look like a safe team. A loss puts them in relegation. Because their last two weeks are against Reggina and Livorno, they cannot be counted out just yet. I dont see them beating Cagliari on the road next week, but if they do, then my prediction for them of being relegated will likely end up wrong

Odds of Relegation: ask me after the Cagliari match but I think they are going down.

Livorno
29 points
Remaining Schedule: Roma(A), Milan(H), Atalanta(A), Torino(H), Empoli(A)

Livorno sits in last although it easily could be Cagliari who sits here. Todays game was probably the biggest game played in Serie A this year and although they lost at home, it could have gone their way. This game not only showed its importance in how the teams played, but also showed us that there is very little difference between the bottom seven teams in Serie A this year. When you lose at home against Cagliari and then get immediately to face Roma and Milan who still have something to play for, they could be buried in relegation before they get to play what might be the two worse teams in Serie A in Torino and Empoli the last two weeks of the season. Timing is everything and that combined with Livornos loss today hurt it a ton.

Odds of Relegation: Almost Certain

As of right now, I see Livorno, Empoli, and Catania going down with Torino shitting its pants more then anyone else as the weeks pass by. As a Cagliari fan, I cant tell you how huge todays win was for us, but it was really just the first of two must win games if they want to survive. All of these teams have holes yet they all will show something to surprise us before the end of the year. The timing of the good and bad play from these teams will determine who goes to Serie B next year. If you are a fan of any of these seven teams you have to be worried and even todays happy Reggina and Cagliari fans will get back to worrying after next week if they drop points.

I love Serie A!!